The passive component industry (manufacturers of resistors, capacitors and diodes that are found boring but vital in every electronic device) is on the verge of shortage. You can always buy a 220Ω, 0805 resistor, but instead of spending 2 cents for a penny like now, it's better to buy one in the near future.
Yageo, one of the largest manufacturers of surface mount (SMD) resistors and multilayer ceramic capacitors, announced in December that they would not accept orders for new chip resistors. Yageo cut production of cheap chip resistors to focus on high-margin niche market components for automotive, IoT and other industrial uses,
. Earlier this month, Yaego resumed accepting orders for chip resistors, but
(For articles behind the paywall, please try to click
).
As a result, there are rumors that the sales volume of passive components in the Shenzhen electronics market is very high, and several tweets from the electronics industry say that the prices of certain components have doubled. Because every electronic device uses these "bean-shaped" parts, reduced supply or increased prices means that certain products will not be shipped on time, profits will decrease, or the price of the latest electronic products will increase.
The question remains: Are we on the verge of a shortage of resistors, and what does it mean to have a manufacturer without the required parts?
With the upcoming shortage news, you can expect dealers to increase prices, buy more inventory or take measures to ensure a stable supply of SMD resistors in the next few years. There are two ways to determine whether this is happening. The first is an advanced analysis from a company that analyzes thousands of BOMs and provides engineers with tools to determine the right components for their supply chain. The second method is to check some old Mouser invoices.
In the past, I have purchased several rolls of Yageo resistors, and by looking at Mouser’s order history, I found that there is no change in the price between six months ago and today. In June last year, five thousand 220Ω, 0603 resistors from Yageo cost $10, while today's cost is $10. Of course, this is a data set. To truly understand the inventory situation, we need better data.
, A search tool for electronic parts (owned by SupplyFrame, the owner of Hackaday and the person who pays me) has a "parts intelligence" tool for viewing historical prices and inventory of various parts. For example, Yageo’s stock
News about potential shortages of important commodities such as chip resistors and capacitors may scare some people. Of course, there is an obvious question: should the company stock these bean-shaped bean parts? Should you lock in the price now and buy a full year of inventory? What if
Did something? History tells us that you should not do this.
In the early 1970s, there were a lot of consumer goods shortages in the United States, the most important being the shortage of natural gas. However, there is another way to gain insight into why you should not store more than you need during a shortage. In 1971, a corn blight hit crops in the southeastern United States, increasing the price of livestock feed. In response, livestock producers reduced their herds, and the price of meat (especially beef) rose sharply. By 1973, the media reported a shortage of beef and consumers complained about the high price of premium steaks.
Also in 1973, William Rathje, a young archaeologist at the University of Arizona, began studying garbage. The garbage hidden in the household garbage bags collected in 1973 is garbage, which surprises anyone concerned about the shortage of beef. Under the grapefruit peel and coffee grounds, he found a well-preserved T-bone steak wrapped in a paper towel. Other garbage bags unearthed during the first season of Rathje
Shows more beef chunks, which is completely edible on the surface. In these bags, you can also find newspapers reporting on beef shortages, and the results of media investigations clearly show that consumers are reducing beef consumption. In fact, the analysis of garbage shows that during the beef shortage period, consumers buy three times as much beef as before or after. Consumers stock and panic buying without realizing that beef is perishable. Others bought cheap, unfamiliar pieces of beef that they didn't know how to prepare. During the beef shortage, beef consumption increased. Human psychology is strange.
The moral of the beef shortage story is to buy what you can foresee, not what you worry about not getting. In our current situation, implementing the latter will result in component reels not being used in racks and closets around the world, rather than being available when needed. The damage rate of resistors is not as fast as T-bone steak, but no one likes to carry too much inventory, and the act of hoarding will definitely allocate scarce resources.
Unnecessary inventory may be bad, but the electronics industry is also strange. There is no other industry on earth
Can buy supplies of certain things in the world. Myself
Furthermore, the market for commodity resistors is different from the market for rare components. Among rare components, being able to purchase parts will destroy product release. This may be a temporary error. With sufficient inventory there, market forces will eventually prevail, requiring resistor manufacturers to increase production lines and produce thousands of resistors. But before that, we are likely to see higher prices for chip resistors, which may increase the BOM cost by a few cents.
The box of resistors under my bed might turn into a gold mine!
"The moral of the beef shortage story is to buy what you can foresee, not what you worry about not getting."
Or ethics might be, learning how to store and prepare what you have?
As for non-perishable things like resistors, it may be worse that they are useless. Likewise, maybe people will be able to 3D print their resistors in the future.
Make it jerky, it will stay longer...
Uh, uh! Thin carbon film dry is the best!
Oh, you just can't resist, can you?
thank you all. Make full use of the entire reading time.
For "better", for everyone, if no one stores unwanted resistors, that would be the best choice.
But the problem is you: "If...the best"...will not affect everyone's behavior, so there are rumors that resistors may be short in the near future, which will lead to actual shortages in the short term. They will not be wasted like beef, but they will be piled up for a long time...
Well.. When a large passive house is smaller than a grain of sand and we are all old and unable to adapt to any architectural style allowed.. It is the hoarders who will sell their second-hand goods on Ebay, and their The children sell garbage dumps. In the death table or worse, put them in the big cardboard box under the big table and go to the old man's house so we can continue to build things.
Indeed... I plan to buy a lot of resistors: P
This was the basis of British rationing during World War II. There is a limit to the amount of X/Y/Z you can buy, but in return, the government guarantees that you can always buy X/Y/Z, so you don’t need to buy it until you need it
InRange viewer detected!
Global resistors are more difficult to debug. I prefer object-oriented electronic devices. My parts are local (and start with an underscore).
If we really need the resistor urgently, we can try to connect the electrode to the preference function instead of the object-oriented heresy!
However, then you will not be able to use OO resistor arrays.
Okay, you have to share this... How did you accidentally monopolize the entire supply of scarce components worldwide?
I clicked on italics, hoping to find the answer link!
Yes, I want to hear that story too. . .
This is easier than you think. I did this (intentionally) the other day. Mouser and the smaller houses are gone, there are only a few hundred digital keys left, so we bought all of them. prosperity. Global shortage [exaggeration]. But until the manufacturer delivers the next batch of products (such as 2 months). In this case, it is a special 5-pin RA circular connector.
I am also curious about the "accidental" part :-)
I used to be the largest purchaser of Rogue Imperial Stout in the country. It turns out that no one bought this product at that time. I happened to work at a distributor and bought a box on behalf of a friend. $13 per bottle (distributor pricing), bars and restaurants only buy a few bottles at a time, mainly for decoration.
My purchasing colleague received a call from the Rogue salesperson and confirmed that this is not an error.
Thieves Empire Stout
Was this name brewed by fans of Star Wars?
Don’t I drink much beer? The gangster is the brewery, and the imperial stout is the style. I cannot comment on their preference for movies.
I'm sure this is related to SMD LED...
The topic of discussing the market is a bit off topic, but it’s really good: here is a link to the 2015 NPR story about the monopoly of the entire American onion market in 1955.
I think this is the LED panel they used for badges about a year ago and then modified to bare LEDs.
I actually did it almost once. In other words, my subcontractor did it. They are making two circuit boards with specific contact information for me. When I am making revisions and preparing to purchase some additional components for my own testing, I find that I can’t find the parts I want, so I call my Branch office. -Contractors, and ask them if they have these components, because I can't find them. Obviously, they bought all of them.
This story repeats itself from time to time, so I may be more general than people think, especially when the components you use are not the most common ones.
A large part of the problem is the small increase in demand (the current global economy is relatively good) and the drive to continuously reduce the cost of electronics. So far, component manufacturers can only reduce costs, and many manufacturers are already at a loss. Now, there is no incentive to invest funds in new passive component factories. They will make as many resistors as possible, and no more resistors. In a sense, I think we may have found the intersection of the price/demand curve on the material.
I am not a real economist, I just work for a relatively large component manufacturer, which is basically what they told us. I am not directly involved, but in the daily conference call, some small parts manufacturers ask for more resistors, we must tell them "No, not for now." Every day has the same questions and answers, everyone will go Ape. The flood of counterfeit goods into the market seems to be the best situation, so please be careful.
Fake resistance?
This reminds me of my attempt to make a power resistor with a pencil lead. Short story... they can't dissipate too much power.
Why smoke-increase the voltage and create a carbon arc!
Just for it, I went to Digi-Key and checked a 220 ohm, 0805 resistor.
There are 10 suppliers for this part and there are millions in stock. That is from a distributor. I think we will be fine.
People often do this. When something extremely cheap becomes expensive for a penny, we seem to see a certain end of the world, as if it will disappear, and we must start hoarding it now. I think people secretly hope that the world will end or something else.
Wait until the GPU market collapses.
Bitcoin needs to implode first: P
Who is mining Bitcoin with GPU?
They are mining Ethereum and other alternative coins that do not use SHA-256 or scrypt for proof of work. It seems to be profitable because the shortage of GPUs (as well as high-end power supplies, low-end CPUs and ≥4 socket Mobo) continues.
The price of alt coins often changes in sync with Bitcoin, because confidence or lack of Bitcoin will spread to ultra-small cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin explodes, all other Bitcoins may also explode.
However, Digi-Key cannot well represent large-scale supply and cost. The basic resistor is so cheap that about 90% of the Digi-Key price is high, which makes the price difference less obvious (usually the correlation with the wholesale price is not very good). Most of the parts are sold directly from the factory to the PCB assembly plant, where switching from Yageo parts for $9/reel to Panasonic parts for $40/reel is not a "sure, no matter, no one" decision. It will not suddenly make the manufacturing of smartphones unprofitable, but low-end products that are already profitable may encounter some problems. These price changes will have to spread throughout the chain, thereby breaking the previously agreed contract and timetable.
It may not be eliminated, but it will definitely change some business models. Remember the chip? Those guys went to great lengths to make things as cheap as possible, so that they used composite video output instead of mini-HDMI. It may not be a big deal here and in most places, but when your fixed price is your whole selling point, you may have to increase the number of pre-orders to maintain the same pricing structure, and this will make you early now have to either commit To buy more products, either act as a PR and gain their success to spread the information to the adopters.
What happened to CHIP?
They went bankrupt.
Too bad, I want to use GR8 SoM in a project, but I cannot buy any CHIP Pro, nor can I buy any CHIP Pro.
Not just low-end, low-profit. People are willing to spend a lot of money on smartphones rather than on dishwashers, but which ones do you think will cost more?
I am very happy that the products that I design sell only a few hundred or less each year, and they are expensive. For my (relatively) small batches, it doesn't matter if my resistors cost 1 or 2 cents per piece. Compared with many other costs, it hardly reduces BOM costs.
me too. Usually, if the passive scroll price increases three times, I won't care. I just need to be able to get them. However, recently I encountered a serious problem with ceramic capacitors. Not just resistance. I have a new revised version of the CPU board, and the footprint was changed entirely due to supply issues to allow 1210 and 1206 on larger capacitors.
In fact, I think it’s ridiculous, just like I have been successful for 7 years without experiencing a serious shortage of distributors, I can’t solve it somehow (have to make a few calls) and finally reach what I can afford To the extent that everything is stocked into the manufacturer’s lead time requirements... Now, these lead times are blurred and no longer reliable.
Thanks to Joe Kim for another great graphic!
In global economics, if the required products are missing, alternative methods will be found.
Therefore, if one factory in China cuts or stops producing resistors, I believe another factory will start producing them, whether in Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Angola or Timbuktu...
Of course, Yeago may be another DeBeers...
Maybe.
Maybe there was a surplus before, this is a market adjustment. I like that anyone can buy cheap parts, I hope that is not the case, but you must admit that it is a small doubt to be able to buy anything for years for a few dollars.
In addition, even if there is no oversupply, there is indeed a shortage now. It will take some time for other companies to realize the gaps, decide to fill the gaps, and provide tools for factories to start production and distribution. At the same time, if this news triggers a lot of panic buying, we can at least expect prices to rise temporarily.
The memory market is already in contraction.
Resistors are easier to produce than large-capacity memory chips. They are even produced in Europe:)
Need a 3D printer to make our own
Not only Yageo, I am a component/continuation engineer. Basically all passive component manufacturers are receiving notifications telling us that the market is entering the "allocation" phase. When you buy 3.1 million parts of a given part every year, it is painful to be told that only 750,000 parts will be sold.
When you get parts from each of the big-name manufacturers in the qualified list, you will also find that none of the parts can meet your needs in the last month, which is also very painful (Want a 649ohm 2010 package resistor? I wish you Good luck! We have never heard of "Viking America" before, obviously they have some.)
Most manufacturers expect a market bubble sometime this year. They don't want to stay in inventory, nor do they want to invest in equipment that may be idle in a few months. The little guy trying to fill in the gaps is completely unknown in many cases (and we avoid dark gray areas when I work on personal safety) and cannot keep up with the needs of other people.
Usually diodes are not counted as passive components, right?
Of course we have already had this conversation ;-)
In the past 4 months, the delivery time of Yageo MLCC of our main distributor has been changed 3 times (stretched)! It looks like capacitors will be the next... :(
There is a continuing shortage of capacitors in Shenzhen.
For example, the price of capacitors in the EOMA68-A20 computing card dropped from 0.5 usd to 2.5 usd.
This is much better than the worst 4-8 usd number cited a month or two ago.
But it is still increasing substantially.
"There is no other industry on the planet that can randomly buy anyone's things."
For all the kids who don’t realize how great they are these days...
I think this is a common strategy before the Internet era. Buy all the parts and design a project around it. Then publish the item in fan magazines (such as "Popular Electronics", "Radio Electronics", etc.)... In the beautiful printing of the BOM, mention your address, and you will be happy to help users find hard-to-find parts Some inflated prices.
Lol
Today, if you try to list 10 common alternatives in forum comments within an hour.
"I, myself, did it by accident."
Oops, come on Brian. Now we all want to hear this story. The way to make fun!
Now, I really want to know the story of Brian buying something in the world by accident.
Did you mention the vertical sodimm sockets when you discussed the Pi computing module?
I have been looking for those, they seem to be as rare as hen teeth.
Oh yeah. Forgot that. That's just
The supply of the world is somewhere in my basement.
This seems silly to me. This is not like a capacitor disaster. There is no "secret recipe" for making chip resistors. They are commodities. Yaego doesn't want to make them anymore? Panasonic will only speed up the pace. Or Vishay. Or Stackpole. Either...
Maybe Yaego will start producing resistors again. I see a lot from commodity manufacturers. They cut the product line because it was unprofitable, the market panicked and raised the price, then the company restarted the product line, and now they can sell it again for profit. In some cases, manufacturers manipulate the market so that even if the price drops below the level before the shortage, they can finally afford the upgrade cost of the machine and still make a profit.
The moral of the story: cryptocurrency is dead; buy resistors!
It might be a good idea to work on a cheaper micro Waldo system to make better use of the parts that will be available.
Major distributors are now quoting aerospace-grade capacitors and resistors with an average lead time of 65 weeks. Yes, there is a shortage.
My work team bought very special sensors worldwide, but still no stock
If people want to know... I think this is what Brian refers to as an "accidental" global supply shortage:
Then it was time for Hackaday to purchase all 38mm Kingbright common anode 8×8 LED displays (red and green), and Voja had to rotate some common cathode compatible badges and rewrite the software to automatically detect which displayed it.
And there are only 270 badges. This is why the next iteration has a loose LED matrix.
I admit to buying a few rolls recently...but not because of this.
There happen to be 1k and 10k resistors, sometimes 100k resistors dominate my design, I use 1206 or 0805. I may get some reels with other values, but basically, maybe there are 10 values, I don’t see that I have bought a lot of reel resistors in great demand. Although there are many commonly used values, I don’t take up much time, so the price is 10 Australian dollars each time, why not?
I actually encountered quite a problem when I got a cut-off resistor at 0805. I didn’t have any problems at all before. This caused panic among the manufacturers. I rushed to buy them directly from many manufacturers to prevent embarrassment and Time-consuming mass production
According to Digitimes, “Yageo is cutting the production of cheap chip resistors to focus on high-margin niche market components for automotive, IoT, and other industrial uses.”
I know that AEC Q200 certification may increase the requirements for automotive parts and reduce costs, but why do you need any special passive components for IoT devices or standard industrial applications?
It looks more like they want to (ab-) use their global market power (they have approximately 30% market share in passive components) to drive price increases and satisfy shareholders...
The shortage of MLCC is real. We have heard from all suppliers, not just Yageo. Some publishers still have sufficient inventory, but do not trust the prices on their websites. It changes every day. The resistance is not bad, but it will definitely rise. We buy most resistors and capacitors from American manufacturers. If there is no inventory, it is usually possible to produce commercial-grade products at a price of 1-2 weeks and military products (including aging) at a price of 3-4 weeks.
It can probably explain why from the 6 0805 reels I recently ordered from Farnell, I only received 0R.
Although I may accumulate 5000 items for 5000, it is basically a MOQ... and I don’t think I will accidentally cause a shortage of supply :)
Hey MB, who is an American company that produces commercial grade resistors for 1-2 weeks and military resistors for 3-4 weeks (including aging)? Is it Vishay? The offer I got from them is much longer.
It looks like this started in October and will continue until at least mid-2018.
. It may be related to the recent currency fluctuations or China's debt bubble. No matter what method you take, the era of cheap Chinese-style products will soon end.
It will only move to other countries such as Vietnam or the Philippines.
This reminds me of the 4000 series of logic chips about ten years ago. Several large manufacturers have decided to use their fab capacity for higher costs than packaging, and the price increase is enough to induce at least one of them to return to production.
"There is no other industry on the planet that can randomly buy anyone's things. I did this by accident."
Do you have an article about this story? I want to read.
Or is it like buying 10 raspberries on the first day?
Dennis, the answer to your question about the company that produces 2wks (commercial) and 4wks (military) resistors is not Vishay. It is the RCD component of New Hampshire, USA. They are one of the old timers that started 50 years ago.
Very useful when looking for replacement parts for out-of-stock capacitors.
The shortage of memory and multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) slowed the delivery of customer premises equipment (CPE) products. As a result, CEO Bruce McLelland said on today’s earnings call that some production will be transferred from the second quarter to the third quarter. "
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